untitled-design-2020-08-20t143320-848.jpg
USATSI

The top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks have their backs against the wall in Game 4 against the Miami Heat on Sunday afternoon. Giannis Antetokounmpo and company trail 3-0 in the series, leaving a desperate scenario in a win-or-go-home situation in this nationally televised clash. Antetokounmpo (ankle) is officially listed as questionable for the Bucks, with Tyler Herro (hip) listed as probable and Kelly Olynyk (knee) listed as questionable for the Heat.

Tip-off is at 3:30 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists the Heat as 1.5-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 219 in the latest Bucks vs. Heat odds. Before you make any Heat vs. Bucks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 60-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,400 on those picks alone. It's also a sizzling 10-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Heat. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Heat vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Heat spread: Heat -1.5
  • Bucks vs. Heat over-under: 219 points
  • Bucks vs. Heat money line: Heat -125, Bucks +105
  • MIL: The Bucks are 4-5-1 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • MIA: The Heat are 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 games

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee is in a desperate position, needing four consecutive wins to avoid elimination. Simply put, the Bucks have not played to their potential in the first three games, with the Heat magnifying Milwaukee's weaknesses at every turn. However, the Bucks do have plenty to fall back on in terms of encouraging metrics. In the regular season, Milwaukee was the best defensive team in the NBA by a substantial margin, leading the league in shooting efficiency allowed and defensive rebounding. 

Miami is scoring at an impressive clip in the first three games, but positive regression could be in store for Milwaukee when accounting for past success. From there, the Bucks have the MVP front-runner on the roster in Antetokounmpo, who is capable of carrying Milwaukee to a win in Game 4. Antetokounmpo, even while struggling in relative terms, is averaging 22.7 points, 13.3 rebounds and seven assists per game against Miami.

Why the Heat can cover 

To this point in the series, Jimmy Butler has been the best player on the floor for either team. That is impressive given the presence of Antetokounmpo, but Butler is averaging 21.0 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game in the postseason and operating at a star level. He is joined by Bam Adebayo, averaging 15.3 points and 12.4 rebounds per game, and Goran Dragic has also been fantastic, averaging 22.3 points and shooting 43 percent from three-point range in the postseason. 

The Heat rank in the top five in offensive rating (1.14 points per possession) and defensive rating (1.05 points allowed per possession) in the postseason, dominating on both ends. Defensively, Miami is excelling at shutting off the glass, ranking in the top five in defensive rebounding, and the Heat are clamping down on Antetokounmpo, forcing others to beat them. To this point, the Bucks have not been able to do so with consistency.

How to make Bucks vs. Heat picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, with Brook Lopez and Herro projected to exceed their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine. 

So who wins Bucks vs. Heat? And which side of the spread cashes well over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. Bucks spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $5,000 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.